The countdown has begun and, like it or not, time is running out.
Y2K is the abbreviation for the Year 2000. It refers to the technological problem expected to occur at the end of this year when the clock moves from 11:59 p.m. on Dec. 31 to 12:00 am on Jan. 1. Decades ago, computer programmers discovered they could save memory by using two digits instead of four to signify the year. Somebody at that time probably wondered what we were going to do when the century ended and 99 would roll over to 00. Would computers think it was 1900? Apparently this wasn't much of a concern to programmers then, who must have assumed their successors would come up with a solution in time.
But when midnight hits on the new millennium, many computers will read the date as 1900. This could cause computers to crash, to wipe out files, or trigger shutdowns of technology that affects our everyday lives, including power plants that generate our electricity, telephone utilities, satellites, banks, public transportation and government operations, just to name a few. In order to prevent this from happening, all computers need to be made Year 2000 compliant. Someone has to tell the machines that 00 does not mean 1900. Billions of lines of code need to be tested and corrected if found corrupt. Yes, there is a way to fix the Y2K problem. All we need to do is hire enough programmers to do the work. Right?
Wrong. We've waited too long and now there isn't enough time left to fix this worldwide problem. There aren't enough qualified programmers who can test all of the lines of affected program code. And even if enough programmers fix the software, they simply don't have time to work on all the embedded systems. Microchips are in almost everything we use, such as VCRs, camcorders, watches, microwaves, automobiles, medical equipment, communication devices. These items we take for granted could fail due to the confusion of the date change.
According to Paloma O'Riley, a computer programmer interviewed by Nexus, a magazine out of Boulder, Colo., Y2K has "actually been tested and documented... Hawaiian Electric did some Y2K tests on their generating systems, which shut down completely." Medical equipment, such as defibrillators, completely shut down during tests and couldn't be restarted. The same occurred with radiological equipment. "Air traffic controllers at an emergency meeting of the International Federation of Airline Controllers in January 1998 simulated the year 2000 date change. Their screens went blank."
Wait a minute. If this is true, why isn't the general public aware of it? Why hasn't the government announced the potential problems that are sure to be a result of Y2K? In the Nexus article, O'Riley says companies are hiding their Y2K problems from the general public. "They're hiding from liability," she says, and "some of the financial consequences, especially businesses with stockholders." One reason companies are afraid to disclose their concern is because stock values start to drop when directors talk about Y2K problems to their stockholders. "Every company's terrified of losing money," says O'Riley.
An exception is Ford Motor Company, the huge conglomerate auto maker. Ford announced in its December 1998 issue of Ford World that it has taken the Y2K problem seriously and is actually doing something about it. By June of this year, Ford plans to make all critical plant floor equipment compliant. It is monitoring its suppliers' Y2K readiness and will not do business with companies that are non-compliant. Ford is testing its business computer systems (several hundred million lines of code) and plans to have them compliant by the end of the year at a cost of 25 cents per line of code (the U.S. industry average is about $2 per line). A corporation as large as Ford Motor Company certainly cannot afford to risk technological failures.
If Ford is doing it, why aren't others? Apparently some companies have taken the problem seriously, but many others are still in denial. People are confused by Y2K. Some believe it is merely a big conspiracy in order to line the pockets of profiteers. They won't be fooled.
The federal government's Social Security Administration has reassured its recipients that monthly checks will continue. However, says O'Riley, "if the Society Security Administration is compliant, but the Treasury Department can't cut checks, it doesn't make any difference that Social Security is okay. Also, the IRS is in very big trouble. As much as we hate the IRS, if the IRS is not able to take income in, then there is no money for Social Security or any other agencies."
O'Riley says many officials are not looking at the whole thing holistically, for three reasons: They don't understand, they are trying to keep the public from panicking, and they don't want to jeopardize their political careers.
A Utah senator, Robert Bennett, is encouraging people to work on the Y2K problem and to develop contingency plans. Chevron is another large company that has gone public like Ford. in order to get our government leaders to work on this problem, it is important for private citizens to talk to their mayors and local city and county commissioners, says O'Riley.
In my local town of Paonia, Colo., several people have already held meetings and are gathering in each others' homes to come to grips with Y2K. They are not computer engineers. They are citizens who are concerned about what is going to happen in their community if the worst-case scenario occurs.
Nobody at this point knows what will happen. Maybe nothing. However, the likelihood of things grinding to a halt is high, and it seems only logical to prepare for the worst. My guess is that it is unrealistic to think our country and the world is going to have 100 percent of its embedded systems compliant when the clock strikes midnight on Jan. 1. I foresee power outages, water shortages, telecommunication failures, breakdown of emergency equipment, inability of trucks and trains to deliver food and supplies, and not just for a day or two. This could be the norm for three to six months.
Can you imagine what it will be like early on Jan. 1 when the lights and music suddenly disappear, and you can't start your car? Can you imagine your home without heat during the coldest month of the year, or not being able to draw water out of your tap, or flush waste away because the sewer system has ceased operating? How much fresh water and food do you have on hand to see you through a crisis? If you think a quick trip to the local grocery store is the solution, think again. Most stores stock no more than 72 hours' worth of food supplies. If trucks can't deliver goods and cash registers don't work, plus you can't even drive anywhere... what are you going to do? You and the millions of others in the same boat.
It's impractical to wait around for government help or military intervention. As much as some people fear declaration of martial law and Gestapo-like measures, I believe the government and military are going to have enough problems of their own in a worst-case scenario. Citizens are going to have to rely on themselves and help each other out. If not, nothing short of utter chaos and violence could result.
That is why it is so important to prepare ourselves, organize our friends and neighbors, and get ready NOW þ not six months from now, when we start seeing signs of how Y2K will affect us þ by then it may be too late to prepare. Many companies selling dehydrated and freeze-dried foods are so swamped with orders now that they are already six months behind. By planning and preparing now, we can avoid the "every man for himself" situation, which we can't allow to happen, for if it comes to that, a significant part of our society is doomed, and we will prove we are no better than our ancestors and have learned nothing.
Y2K is not the end of the world. Serious problems may arise, but I believe we have the ability to come through this. We can help one another and survive the crisis should it occur on Jan. 1, 2000.